Bifurcation by Voluntary Speciation

There is another way that an intelligent species can bifurcate other than by accidental, geographic speciation; by voluntary speciation after the genetic grand transformation. Splitting into two separate species can happen if there is a faction that can afford or obtain improved genetics, and another residual one which cannot.

This arrangement could happen in several ways. One is through a geographic separation. One continent or landmass is more technologically advanced, and invents the genetic means for improving the species, indeed modifying its chromosomes, and does it for those who live within its bounds. The other areas, other continents or islands or landmasses, have been left technologically behind, and cannot offer their residents this genetic change. This would seem to be a temporary problem, as technology has a tendency to seep via trade or other means, and so at some later instance, the continent without the advanced genetics capability would gain it, and catch up. This might not happen if there was some reason why technology flow was restricted. This might be connected with the resources connected to the planet, capability of the population, some financial arrangements, or even military pressure. Many reasons mean such a situation might not be unlikely at all on the various alien civilizations that could arise in the Milky Way galaxy.

Another potential cause for speciation is the caste system. It is possible that an alien civilization arises while maintaining a caste system. This would imply and require a very structured society, as when the industrial grand transformation happens, information begins to flow freely, and requiring individuals to maintain the occupational and status arrangements of a caste system would be more difficult. If the alien civilization remained a theocracy, this might happen, but a theocracy would be under great pressure for change after the industrial grand transformation started. If the theocracy transformed into some hierarchical governance system that maintained castes, this might have a greater chance of lingering into the genetics grand transformation, which would set the stage for improvements in the genetics for only the highest or higher castes.

Any other type of hierarchy of power could result in the limitation of genetic improvements, including speciation, to only those near the pinnacle of power-holders. Many forms of governance, those which do not rotate members of the governing leadership very frequently or maintain it by means of inheritance, could enforce the ban on genetic improvement for lower classes. It might even be done without public awareness, with improvements being done for one or even several generations of the leadership, but in secret. This would require a high degree of secrecy within the society itself, and that might not happen if the industrial grand transformation opens up the conduits of communication to larger numbers of individuals within the society, or within those areas on the planet where technological improvement was happening.

Secrecy might be maintained if there were myths spread about genetic improvement, specifically about the impossibility of it, or the high degree of dangers associated with it. If the society had already bifurcated, into those living perhaps in a legacy theocracy, with limited information flow, and a leadership or otherwise powerful group, then the secrecy needed for the upper group to utilize genetic enhancement might be much easier to maintain.

Is such a divided civilization sustainable, and could it manage to mount an interstellar expedition? One concern is that the lower fraction of the population, where no genetic improvements are available, or perhaps only ones associated with genetic disease prevention are available, would be susceptible to the Malthusian idiocracy that was discussed in several other posts. All that is required for this is some mild degree of affluence and a negative correlation between reproduction rates and intelligence. There are good reasons to think that such a negative correlation would be likely, and affluence is a byproduct of the industrial grand transformation. Thus, the upper faction would grow better and better, as the genetic information and genetic engineering capability improved, and the lower faction would grow worse and worse, by the natural processes.

Sustainability in this type of situation depends on the relative production, managed by the upper faction and facilitated by automation and robotics, as compared to the total population that consumed it. Without automation and robotics, production would not be able to increase, as it would require workers, many of them skilled, to participate in it. Over generations, this quota might not be able to be met, as the general intelligence declined and the population increased. Perhaps there would be a tipping point, when maximum production per capita occurred, and after that, it declined. Malthusian idiocracy does not require some particularly high living standards to occur, and in fact could occur with only some minimum amount of production. However, in this scenario, living standards in the lower faction would continue to decline, and eventually would reach a point where the worst-off individuals were living in hardship.

The technology for interstellar travel, assuming it is possible, would occur near the end of the climb of technology. We are too far from it to understand the requirements, but one point stands out: the long travel times that are necessary. Perhaps only biological starships with regenerative power could prevent reliability failures from dooming the voyages. This implies that the genetics grand transformation has run its course, and this seems to be the last stage before technology is completely known. Thus, there would likely be time for the two-faction situation just discussed to come into hardship. This would imply that it would be hard to amass resources for an interstellar voyage.

Perhaps if the proportions were reversed, the opposite result could happen. If genetic improvement, including speciation, were to happen in the large majority of the population, and only a smaller fraction was prevented from using it, or chose to ignore its benefits, then there would be no huge drain on the civilization’s resource usage for consumption of an out-of-control population, and enough could be sequestered away to arrange for the trip. Thus, an alien civilization that visited Earth would likely be from a planet where genetic modification was the common thing, although not used for everyone. There would be a large majority species with greatly enhanced intelligence, health, athleticism, and so on, and a small minority of legacy followers, still part of the original species which evolved to start the civilization. As far as the character of any visitors, they would certainly be from the majority. Only if we on Earth took the step first to travel and visit other civilizations would we likely encounter the details of speciation in any other alien civilization. This is not to say that some of what we named ‘intellos’, intelligent creatures created by the alien civilization as workers, would not be on the ship, but these should not be confused with legacy species individuals.