Thursday, April 4, 2019

Hunting for Life in the Milky Way


In earlier posts, there was some discussion of what would be the goals of an advanced alien civilization, assuming they had come together to choose one and then to work on it. In a different blog, some more thinking on this matter indicated that the most reasonable and likely goal of the civilization is that of life itself, which is best broken down into five separate goals, survival, reproduction, adaptation, evolution and dispersion. These goals imply many choices that the alien civilization would make, in order to further their alignment with these life goals. The last goal is dispersion, and that means first expansion all over the planet, then the solar system, and then outwards into the galaxy. Just think for a minute what this implies: all or most advanced alien civilizations are going to attempt colonization and seeding, both of which support the dispersion of life.

Neither of these tasks are easy, as has been noted in all the posts in this blog on these topics. Colonization means setting up some replica of the alien civilization on an exoplanet ,while seeding means starting out life with the alien version of DNA on some planet which doesn’t have the prerequisites to become an origin planet on its own, but can support life, being in the habitable zone plus all the other conditions. Current theory here on Earth indicate the cells that did that were cyanobacteria.

Looking for seeded planets would likely be the same as looking for origin planets. Seeding might put photosynthetic organisms into a planetary ocean, and then, after a few hundreds of millions of years, an oxygen atmosphere might exist, which is a tremendous benefit for evolution, allowing life to expand beyond chemotrophs and cyanobacteria cells to a food chain. The oxygen in a seeded planet’s atmosphere would look the same as in an origin planet’s atmosphere.

So, assuming most of the alien civilizations do both seeding of potential life-supporting planets and colonization of others, which are not able to support life, but which provide the resources necessary for the alien civilization to sustain itself for a long time. Which ones should be looked for?

Seeding a planet gets over the hump of life origination, which might be tremendously difficult, rare and improbable, at least according to one theory, mine. Is evolution fairly certain after that, or are there more highly improbable-to-overcome barriers along the way to intelligence? Suppose there aren’t. Suppose evolution is as easy as rolling down a hill. However, it takes a long time. Earth is our only example here, and life took about two and a half billion years after the atmosphere changed to partially oxygen to evolve to intelligence. This means that any alien civilization which evolved in the last two to three billion years has not had enough time yet for their first example of seeding to have led to a new alien civilization, evolved from cyanobacteria to tool-using creatures of one form or another.

This raises the obvious question of when, in the history of the galaxy, was life likely to originate? There are stars around which are ten or so billion years old. Could these have had planets soon after they formed, and perhaps one which met the prerequisites for life to originate? Unfortunately, current astronomical tools do not allow us to figure out much of the history of the galaxy. It likely started out as a gas blob, and condensed irregularly, with stars forming all over it, but more in the denser region in the center. Gas was more dense that now, as by now much has been consumed in star formation, and that implies that stars which formed early would be larger. Large stars live short lives, and end in a supernova explosion. There would not have been the neat division of the galaxy into the disk and the central bulge, so star motion would have been more random and Boltzmann-like. Neither of these two things bode well for planets. Supernovas going off near a planetary system sterilize it, but may also disturb planetary orbits, causing them to be ejected or rarely crash into the star. The passage of a nearby star does the same thing, pulling planets out of their orbit, leading to a planet-planet interaction where the smaller ones get ejected. So, while little definitive is known, it would seem likely that planetary formation in a system which perseveres long enough to originate and evolve life is more likely in the later stages of the galaxy and out in the disk. Finding planets to seed would also be more likely in these conditions.

Putting this together means that seeded planets might be around, but life on them is too young to have evolved into an advanced civilization. There really is a double time here. For life to originate and produce an alien civilization, capable of star travel, might take four billion years since the planet formed into a habitable world, with the right temperatures and everything else needed for life. Then if that civilization seeds another planet, we have another three billion years or so to wait. That is seven total, and seven billion years ago, there might have been so much turmoil in the galaxy that life couldn’t originate and evolve. So, planets which have been seeded might be common, and even many which have had the few hundred million years to produce an oxygen atmosphere. But if we are hunting for alien civilizations, seeded planets are not worth the effort. That leaves origin planets and colonized planets.

The previous post, on frozen worlds, indicates that colonized worlds, if the aliens choose worlds which are the easiest to colonize and which will sustain them for a long time, might look absolutely different from origin worlds. It also indicated, because of the very different time scales involved, that there could be very many of them all over the Milky Way, or at least out in the disk. The idea was simple: if there are sufficient resources on the planet, fusible and fissionable elements, plus all the other minerals necessary to supply the civilization with its raw materials, buried in the ground, they can simply build their civilization under the surface, on a frozen world and maybe some not so frozen. The ratio between colonized worlds and origin worlds might be a thousand to one. There would also be much larger numbers of previously colonized worlds where the alien civilization has used up the minerals and life on the planet was no longer sustainable for them.

How do you detect a mine shaft and a starship landing zone? Maybe there would have to be some surface transportation, if they needed to have mines in multiple locations. It might be possible, with a kilometer sized telescope, to see large oceans on an exoplanet in our vicinity, but even one ten times larger than that could not detect something as small as tens of meters or even a kilometer in size. Looking for a tiny heat source is conceivable, but unlikely as the resolution at deep infrared wavelengths is so much less than in the visible. If the concepts trotted out here and in the last post are viable, it means that alien civilizations are not detectable, and they would have no interest in coming to Earth, either for seeding as we are way past that, or colonizing as there are too many potential difficulties. It wouldn’t align with their goal of dispersing life at all to visit Earth. So the only thing we have any hope of doing is detecting an origin world, but if there is only a few of them,they might be on the other side of the Milky Way or in a different spiral arm. Perhaps a double hope of there being easy ways to originate life and our detecting oxygen in exo-planet atmospheres is the only possible salvation for the quest to find aliens.