In earlier
posts, there was some discussion of what would be the goals of an
advanced alien civilization, assuming they
had come together to choose one and then to work on it. In a
different
blog, some more thinking on this matter indicated that the most
reasonable and likely goal of the civilization is that of life
itself, which is best broken down into five
separate goals, survival, reproduction, adaptation, evolution and
dispersion. These goals imply many choices that the alien
civilization would make, in order to further their alignment with
these life goals. The last goal is dispersion, and that means first
expansion all over the planet, then the solar system, and then outwards into
the galaxy. Just think for a minute what this implies: all or most
advanced alien civilizations are going to attempt colonization and
seeding, both of which support the dispersion of life.
Neither of these
tasks are easy, as has been noted in all the posts in this blog on
these topics. Colonization
means setting up some replica of the alien civilization on an
exoplanet ,while seeding
means starting out life with the alien version of DNA on some
planet which doesn’t have the prerequisites to become an origin
planet on its own, but can support life, being in the habitable zone
plus all the other conditions. Current theory here on Earth indicate
the cells that did that were cyanobacteria.
Looking for seeded
planets would likely be the same as looking for origin planets.
Seeding might put photosynthetic organisms into a planetary ocean,
and then, after a few hundreds of millions of years, an oxygen
atmosphere might exist, which is a tremendous benefit for evolution,
allowing life to expand beyond chemotrophs
and cyanobacteria cells to a food chain. The oxygen in a
seeded planet’s atmosphere would look the same as in an origin
planet’s atmosphere.
So, assuming most of
the alien civilizations do both seeding of potential life-supporting
planets and colonization of others, which are not able to support
life, but which provide the resources necessary for the alien
civilization to sustain itself for a long time. Which ones should be
looked for?
Seeding a planet
gets over the hump of life origination, which might be tremendously
difficult, rare and improbable, at least according to one
theory, mine. Is evolution fairly certain after that, or are
there more highly improbable-to-overcome barriers along the way to
intelligence? Suppose there aren’t. Suppose evolution is as easy as
rolling down a hill. However, it takes a long time. Earth is
our only example here, and life took about two and a half billion
years after the atmosphere changed to partially oxygen to evolve to
intelligence. This means that any alien civilization which evolved
in the last two to three billion years has not had enough time yet
for their first example of seeding to have led to a new alien
civilization, evolved from cyanobacteria to tool-using creatures of
one form or another.
This raises the
obvious question of when, in the history of the galaxy, was life
likely to originate? There are stars around which are ten or so
billion years old. Could these have had planets soon after they
formed, and perhaps one which met the prerequisites for life to
originate? Unfortunately, current astronomical tools do not allow us
to figure out much of the history of the galaxy. It likely started
out as a gas blob, and condensed irregularly, with stars forming all
over it, but more in the denser region in the center. Gas was more
dense that now, as by now much has been consumed in star formation, and that
implies that stars which formed early would be larger. Large stars
live short lives, and end in a supernova explosion. There would not
have been the neat division of the galaxy into the disk and the
central bulge, so star motion would have been more random and
Boltzmann-like. Neither of these two things bode well for planets.
Supernovas going off near a planetary system sterilize it, but may
also disturb planetary orbits, causing them to be ejected or rarely
crash into the star. The passage of a nearby star does the same
thing, pulling planets out of their orbit, leading to a planet-planet
interaction where the smaller ones get ejected. So, while little
definitive is known, it would seem likely that planetary formation in
a system which perseveres long enough to originate and evolve life is
more likely in the later stages of the galaxy and out in the disk.
Finding planets to seed would also be more likely in these
conditions.
Putting this
together means that seeded planets might be around, but life on them
is too young to have evolved into an advanced civilization. There
really is a double time here. For life to originate and produce an
alien civilization, capable of star travel, might take four billion
years since the planet formed into a habitable world, with the right
temperatures and everything else needed for life. Then if that
civilization seeds another planet, we have another three billion
years or so to wait. That is seven total, and seven billion years
ago, there might have been so much turmoil in the galaxy that life
couldn’t originate and evolve. So, planets which have been seeded
might be common, and even many which have had the few hundred million
years to produce an oxygen atmosphere. But if we are hunting for
alien civilizations, seeded planets are not worth the effort. That
leaves origin planets and colonized planets.
The previous post,
on frozen
worlds, indicates that colonized worlds, if the aliens choose
worlds which are the easiest to colonize and which will sustain them
for a long time, might look absolutely different from origin worlds.
It also indicated, because of the very different time scales
involved, that there could be very many of them all over the Milky
Way, or at least out in the disk. The idea was simple: if there are
sufficient resources on the planet, fusible and fissionable elements,
plus all the other minerals necessary to supply the civilization with its
raw materials, buried in the ground, they can simply build their
civilization under the surface, on a frozen world and maybe some not
so frozen. The ratio between colonized worlds and origin worlds
might be a thousand to one. There would also be much larger numbers
of previously colonized worlds where the alien civilization has used
up the minerals and life on the planet was no longer sustainable for
them.
How do you detect a
mine shaft and a starship landing zone? Maybe there would have to be some
surface transportation, if they needed to have mines in multiple
locations. It might be possible, with a kilometer
sized telescope, to see large oceans on an exoplanet in our
vicinity, but even one ten times larger than that could not detect
something as small as tens of meters or even a kilometer in size.
Looking for a tiny heat source is conceivable, but unlikely as the
resolution at deep infrared wavelengths is so much less than in the
visible. If the concepts trotted out here and in the last post are
viable, it means that alien civilizations are not detectable, and they
would have no interest in coming to Earth, either for seeding as we
are way past that, or colonizing as there are too many potential
difficulties. It wouldn’t align with their goal of dispersing life
at all to visit Earth. So the only thing we have any hope of doing
is detecting an origin world, but if there is only a few of them,they might be on the other side of
the Milky Way or in a different spiral arm. Perhaps a double hope of there being easy ways to
originate life and our detecting oxygen in exo-planet atmospheres is
the only possible salvation for the quest to find aliens.